The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), an agreement signed between India and Pakistan in 1960 under the mediation of the World Bank, has been heralded as a model for transboundary water management. Designed to allocate the waters of the Indus River system and prevent conflicts between the two nations, the treaty has endured multiple wars and decades of political tension. However, the recent unilateral suspension of the treaty by India in 2025 has raised serious legal, political, and humanitarian concerns.
The Historical Context of the Indus Waters Treaty
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960, is often hailed as one of the most significant and enduring agreements on transboundary water management. To understand its origins, it is essential to consider the geopolitical and historical circumstances that necessitated such an accord.
Origins of the Dispute
The rivers of the Indus Basin have been the lifeblood of agriculture and civilization in the region for millennia. The Basin, spanning parts of present-day India, Pakistan, and China, comprises six major rivers: the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. These rivers primarily originate in India and flow downstream into Pakistan, making them vital to both countries.
Following the partition of British India in 1947, the division of territory also split the Indus River system. While the headwaters of the rivers remained in India, the flow was critical to Pakistan’s irrigation-based agriculture. This geographic division sowed the seeds of future contention. Immediately after partition, an interim agreement was established to manage irrigation waters. However, tensions escalated in 1948 when India briefly halted water flow into Pakistan’s canals, further intensifying the need for a permanent resolution.
Geopolitical Context
The political climate following partition was highly volatile. Relations between India and Pakistan were strained due to territorial disputes, particularly over the region of Jammu and Kashmir. Both nations recognized that water security was essential for development and survival, making the Indus Basin a potential flashpoint. The mutual interdependence on these rivers necessitated a structured and cooperative approach to avoid conflict.
Role of the World Bank
Recognizing the critical importance of resolving the water dispute, the World Bank (then known as the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development) offered to mediate between the two nations in 1951. Eugene Black, the then-president of the World Bank, spearheaded the initiative. He envisioned a technical rather than a political solution to the dispute to ensure neutrality and fairness.
The World Bank proposed dividing the river system into two segments. Pakistan would receive control over the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab), while India would retain control over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej). This division was not immediately acceptable to either party, and negotiations stretched over nearly a decade.
Negotiations and Challenges
Between 1952 and 1960, numerous rounds of negotiations took place, involving technical experts and political representatives from both India and Pakistan. These discussions proved to be complex, as the interests of the two nations were deeply entrenched. Pakistan sought guarantees for an uninterrupted supply of water from the rivers that flowed through India, given its reliance on the Indus for agriculture. India, on the other hand, aimed to secure its rights to utilize the eastern rivers for development and irrigation.
The involvement of the World Bank was pivotal in bridging gaps and fostering dialogue. Financial provisions were also considered integral to the agreement. The World Bank and several other nations provided funding to build canal systems and reservoirs in Pakistan that would help it transition from reliance on India-controlled water sources.
Signing of the Treaty
Finally, after exhaustive discussions, the Indus Waters Treaty was signed on September 19, 1960, in Karachi by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, Pakistani President Ayub Khan, and World Bank President W.A.B. Iliff. The treaty allocated the three eastern rivers to India and the three western rivers to Pakistan, with provisions allowing India limited use of the western rivers for non-consumptive purposes such as hydropower generation.
The agreement also called for the establishment of a Permanent Indus Commission, comprising representatives from both countries, to oversee its implementation and resolve disputes. Additionally, a detailed financial plan was devised to aid Pakistan in developing its water infrastructure, ensuring it could fully utilize the allocations provided under the treaty.
Legacy of the Historical Accord
The Indus Waters Treaty is a testament to successful negotiation and compromise, achieved under the shadow of geopolitical tension. The intricate diplomacy facilitated by the World Bank and the commitment of both nations to resolve their differences laid the groundwork for what has been viewed as one of history’s most enduring water-sharing agreements. It remains an important chapter in international water law and diplomacy, underscoring the necessity of cooperation in managing shared natural resources.
The treaty divided the rivers into two categories:
- Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej): Allocated entirely to India for unrestricted use.
- Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab): Exclusively allotted to Pakistan, with strict limitations on India’s usage.
This division provided Pakistan with 80% of the total basin’s waters, ensuring its economic and agricultural stability while allowing India limited usage for non-consumptive purposes such as hydropower and navigation.
Key Provisions of the Treaty Safeguarding Pakistan’s Rights
Several provisions of the treaty explicitly safeguard Pakistan’s access and rights to the waters of the western rivers:
- Exclusive Allocation:
The treaty provides Pakistan exclusive rights to the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers, which form the backbone of its agricultural economy. - Restriction on India’s Activities:
India is permitted limited usage of the western rivers, such as for hydropower and domestic purposes. However, such projects must not alter the flow of water downstream into Pakistan and are subject to prior consultation and notification. - Conflict Resolution Mechanisms:
Disputes arising from the treaty are to be resolved through a structured process, beginning with bilateral talks, followed by the involvement of neutral experts or arbitration under the World Bank’s auspices if necessary. - Legal Framework Against Unilateral Actions:
The treaty explicitly prohibits unilateral suspension or termination by either party. Article XII states that the treaty remains in force until mutually agreed upon modifications or adjustments are made.
The Illegality of India’s Suspension of the Treaty
India’s decision to suspend its participation in the IWT in 2025 following a terrorist attack in Kashmir, which it attributed to Pakistan, is being staunchly contested by Pakistan. The suspension includes halting data sharing and withholding commitments under the treaty. Pakistan argues that this act constitutes a violation of the treaty’s provisions and international law for the following reasons:
1. Breach of Article XII
Article XII of the treaty states that “This Treaty shall continue in force until explicitly terminated by mutual agreement of both parties.” India’s unilateral suspension directly contravenes this clause, as no mutual consensus was sought or obtained. The treaty’s binding nature makes it immune to arbitrary renegotiation or abandonment.
2. Violation of International Water Law
India’s actions violate established principles of international water law, particularly those laid out in the 1997 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses. The convention emphasizes equitable and reasonable utilization of shared water resources and prohibits actions that may cause significant harm to co-riparian states.
Furthermore, customary international law obligates states to resolve transboundary water disputes through negotiation and consultation, rather than unilateral action. India’s disregard for these frameworks undermines its obligations as an upper riparian state.
3. Weaponization of Water
Pakistan views India’s suspension of the treaty as an attempt to weaponize water, leveraging it as a tool for coercion in broader geopolitical conflicts. The deliberate withholding of critical water resources raises ethical and humanitarian concerns, considering the potential impact on millions who rely on the Indus system for drinking water, irrigation, and electricity.
4. Lack of Jurisdiction for Termination
India’s claim that “changed circumstances,” such as population growth and terrorism, justify the suspension is legally tenuous. The doctrine of changed circumstances (rebus sic stantibus) is rarely applicable in international law, especially when treaties include explicit provisions for dispute resolution, as the IWT does.
5. India’s Dams and Their Impact on Pakistan’s Water Rights
India’s construction of dams and other water diversion projects on rivers allocated to Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), specifically the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, has led to serious accusations of treaty violations and illegal activities. These projects, including large-scale dams and hydroelectric installations, are perceived by Pakistan as efforts to regulate and restrict the natural flow of water critical to its irrigation systems and overall water security.
Key examples include the Kishanganga Dam, a hydroelectric project on the Jhelum River with a capacity of 330 MW, which diverts 58% of the river’s flow to the Wular Lake, significantly reducing water availability downstream in Pakistan’s Neelum Valley. Another notable project is the Ratle Dam on the Chenab River, with an installed capacity of 850 MW, which enables upstream control of water, potentially disrupting irrigation during key agricultural seasons. Reports indicate that these activities could reduce water flow to Pakistan by up to 13%, creating grave consequences for a country where over 90% of freshwater is utilized for agriculture.
Crops such as wheat, rice, and cotton are particularly at risk, with estimates suggesting a potential reduction of 27% to 30% in production if water shortages persist. Beyond these projects, India’s construction of the Baglihar Dam (450 MW) and plans for 23 other hydropower projects further exacerbate tensions, as such initiatives are seen as exceeding the IWT’s provisions for non-consumptive use, while delaying critical data-sharing commitments. Collectively, these activities highlight significant challenges to treaty compliance and international legal norms, raising fears of long-term water insecurity, food shortages, and socio-economic instability in Pakistan.
Pakistan’s Reliance on the Indus Waters and Potential Consequences
Pakistan’s agrarian economy is heavily dependent on the Indus River system, with 80% of the country’s irrigated agriculture reliant on its waters. The treaty guarantees water flows that support food security, employment, and energy production for millions.
Economic and Social Catastrophe
Any disruption to water flows could devastate Pakistan’s economy, leading to agricultural losses, food shortages, and unemployment. The cessation of water data sharing also hinders Pakistan’s ability to prepare for floods or droughts, exacerbating its vulnerability to natural disasters.
Humanitarian Crisis
The weaponization of water would inevitably impact the most vulnerable segments of Pakistani society, plunging rural communities into poverty and water scarcity. Access to clean water is a fundamental human right, and India’s suspension of the treaty threatens to violate this right on a massive scale.
Broader Implications of India’s Actions
India’s unilateral suspension of the IWT sets a dangerous precedent for international water-sharing agreements, especially in regions experiencing political tensions. The actions risk undermining the principles of cooperative water management and could encourage other nations to weaponize shared resources.
Regional Stability
The move has escalated tensions between India and Pakistan, raising fears of conflict. Water, a vital resource for both countries, should be a pathway to cooperation rather than a trigger for confrontation.
Global Concerns
The Indus Waters Treaty has been a model for successful transboundary water management. Its failure could undermine confidence in similar agreements worldwide, just as climate change and population growth put additional stress on shared water resources.
Pakistan’s Legal and Diplomatic Response
Pakistan has implemented a multi-pronged strategy to challenge India’s actions:
- Approaching International Forums:
Pakistan plans to petition the World Bank, the treaty’s guarantor, to intervene and uphold the agreement. While the World Bank has a limited role, its involvement could help mediate a resolution. - Pursuing Arbitration:
Pakistan may escalate the issue to an international arbitration tribunal or the ICJ, arguing that India’s suspension violates both the treaty and international law. - Diplomatic Outreach:
Pakistan is engaging with the United Nations and its allies to build international pressure on India to reverse its decision and resume dialogue. - Highlighting Humanitarian Concerns:
By emphasizing the potential humanitarian impact of water disruptions, Pakistan aims to garner global sympathy and support.
Steps Pakistan Can Take
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by India has introduced a significant challenge for Pakistan, given its reliance on the Indus River System for agriculture, ecology, and economic sustenance. The situation not only impacts bilateral relations between the two nations but also places international treaty compliance and water security in a precarious position. To navigate this situation effectively, Pakistan must adopt a comprehensive strategy, and the global community must act to ensure adherence to international agreements and the principles of justice.
1. Pursue Diplomatic Solutions
- Bilateral Engagement: Pakistan should initiate dialogue with India through diplomatic channels to address concerns related to the treaty suspension. While direct discussions may face obstacles, bilateral engagement remains critical to finding a peaceful resolution.
- Multilateral Diplomacy: Pakistan must raise the issue at international forums such as the United Nations (UN) and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), emphasizing the broader implications of such unilateral actions on transboundary water management.
2. Invoke International Arbitration
- Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA): The IWT provides provisions for dispute resolution through the PCA. Pakistan should formally request arbitration under the treaty’s mechanisms, presenting its case against India’s alleged violations.
- International Court of Justice (ICJ): If necessary, Pakistan can seek advisory judgments from the ICJ on the legality of India’s actions, reinforcing its legitimacy on the world stage and highlighting India’s treaty obligations under international law.
3. Strengthen the Role of the Indus Commission
- Utilization of the Permanent Indus Commission: Pakistan can use the treaty-mandated Permanent Indus Commission to convene meetings and highlight concerns about the treaty’s implementation. This can act as both a platform for dialogue and evidence that Pakistan is complying with all IWT provisions.
4. Invest in Water Management Infrastructure
- Build Reservoirs and Dams: To enhance water security, Pakistan should accelerate the construction of reservoirs and dams. This would reduce dependence on India for water flows, ensuring better storage and distribution mechanisms.
- Modernize Irrigation Systems: Upgrading irrigation practices and adopting efficient water-use technologies can help Pakistan mitigate water shortages that may arise due to treaty violations.
5. Raise Environmental Concerns
- Highlight Ecological Impact: Pakistan must emphasize the potential environmental consequences of India’s actions, including reduced water flow to downstream ecosystems. This angle can draw attention to the broader ecological repercussions of treaty violations.
- Leverage Climate Change Narratives: Water disputes in South Asia are exacerbated by climate change. Pakistan can position itself as a victim of dual vulnerabilities caused by altered weather patterns and upstream water manipulation.
Role of the International Community
1. Enforce Compliance with International Laws
Global institutions and nations must take responsibility for ensuring that the IWT remains intact. The treaty is not optional; it is legally binding under international law. Any suspension or violation sets a dangerous precedent, undermining the credibility of such agreements worldwide.
- Mediation by the World Bank: Since the World Bank played a key role in the treaty’s creation, it holds the moral and procedural responsibility to intervene. The institution should ensure that both parties adhere to the agreement’s provisions and prevent a complete breakdown.
- United Nations’ Role: The UN must acknowledge that water security is a fundamental human right and a global priority. It should facilitate dialogue between India and Pakistan, emphasizing peaceful resolution through adherence to international norms.
2. Offer Technical and Financial Support to Pakistan
The international community should provide technical and financial assistance to Pakistan for:
- Developing infrastructure to harness available water resources.
- Implementing modern irrigation techniques and drought-resilient farming practices.
- Strengthening flood prediction and disaster management systems.
3. Promote Regional Water Cooperation
The international community, particularly global organizations such as the UN and World Bank, can promote cooperative frameworks in South Asia to prevent water disputes from escalating. Lessons can be drawn from other successful transboundary water-sharing models, such as the Mekong River agreements, to foster trust and collaboration.
4. Impose Diplomatic Pressure on India
- Key global players, including the United States, European Union, and China, must use diplomatic channels to urge India to reverse its suspension of the treaty. These nations can underscore the broader consequences of unilateral actions on regional peace and economic stability.
- If required, international economic measures or sanctions can be considered to signal disapproval of treaty violations.
5. Highlight the Global Water Security Crisis
Water disputes are not unique to South Asia, and their implications are global. The international community must treat the IWT dispute as part of the broader challenge of managing shared natural resources under growing pressures from population increase and climate change. By ensuring that the IWT is honored, nations can set an example of effective governance over shared resources.
The Path Forward
The Indus Waters Treaty has served as a symbol of cooperation since its inception, but recent developments have highlighted its fragility. Pakistan, by employing diplomatic, legal, and environmental strategies, can assert its rights and secure its access to vital water resources. At the same time, the international community must collectively act to preserve the treaty, ensuring that it continues as a model for peaceful transboundary water-sharing agreements.
Ultimately, the resolution of this dispute requires adherence to principles of fairness, equity, and international law. Only through collective action can the rights of Pakistan’s citizens be protected, and global water security reinforced.
A Call for Cooperation and Dialogue
The Indus Waters Treaty has stood as a testament to the importance of cooperation in managing shared resources. Its suspension not only threatens Pakistan’s water security but also undermines decades of progress in transboundary water governance. The path forward requires dialogue, mutual respect, and adherence to the rule of law. Both India and Pakistan must recognize that sustainable water management is not a zero-sum game but a shared responsibility critical to the well-being of their populations.
While the treaty is not without its flaws, its preservation is vital for the stability and prosperity of South Asia. Any resolution must reaffirm Pakistan’s rights and ensure that water is respected as a fundamental resource, not wielded as a weapon in political disputes.
